Department of Energy and Climate Change

Each year DECC publishes updated energy projections (UEPs), analysing and projecting future energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the UK . The projections are based on assumptions of future economic growth, fossil fuel prices, UK population and other key variables. A set of projections is based on a range of assumptions to represent the uncertainty in making such projections into the future.

These projections are consistent with the most recent UK budget announcements and assume the impact of the package of policies set out in the Low Carbon Transition Plan and the Household Energy Management Strategy. They are used to inform energy policy and associated analytical work across Government departments.

Most recent projections

The latest emissions projections are available below:

• Updated emissions projections: June 2010
• Annex A: Greenhouse gas emissions by source
• Annex B: Carbon dioxide emissions by source
• Annex C: Final energy demand
• Annex D: Major Power Producers generation by source
• Annex E: Total electricity generation by source
• Annex F: Fossil fuel and retail price assumptions
• Annex G: Policy savings included in the projections

These projections update the previous set of projections published in July 2009 alongside the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan.

The current projections are presented on the net UK carbon account basis and are based on updated fossil fuel price assumptions. The projections include the policy proposals in the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan, including the Renewable Energy Strategy.

Previous energy projections and associated work
 

• UK Low Carbon Transition Plan projections document: July 2009
• The April 2009 projections were published alongside the 2009 Budget, and compared projected net emissions against carbon budget levels. This is available on the HM Treasury: Budget 2009 - building a low carbon economy: implementing the Climate Change Act 2008 webpage
• Updated emissions projections: November 2008
• Updated energy and carbon emissions projections: the energy white paper (May 2007)
• UK energy and CO2 emissions projections: July 2006
• UK energy and CO2 emissions projections: updated emissions projections to 2020:  February 2006
• May 2005: Presentation on DTI energy emission projections
• Updated emissions projections - November 2004 - final projections to inform the National Allocation Plan
• Updated emissions projections - November 2004 - Addendum: projections beyond 2010
• Energy paper 68: energy projections for the UK

Previous DECC emissions projections have been used to inform the:

• UK Low Carbon Transition Plan
• Energy white paper 2007: ‘Meeting the energy challenge’
• European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS): Phase II National Allocation Plan (2008-2012)
• Energy review 2006: 'The energy challenge'
• UK Climate Change Programme (May 2006)
• European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS): Phase I National Allocation Plan (NAP) 

DECC fossil fuel price assumptions

Fossil fuel price and other key assumptions are published alongside the emissions projections. As energy markets change, and especially in a period of price volatility, it is important that we continually review such assumptions.

• Communication on DECC fossil fuel price assumptions
• Guidance on carbon accounting and the net UK carbon account

AEA Technology projections of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

A report on the non-CO2 projections to accompany the June 2010 energy projection update

• Non- CO2 projections report June 2010
• Non- CO2 summary tables June 2010

A report on the non-CO2 projections to accompany the July 2009 energy projection update

• Non- CO2 projections report for the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan: July 2009
• Non- CO2 summary tables for the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan: July 2009

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UK Electricity Generation Costs Update: A report by Mott MacDonald

This report sets out an update of the estimated cost of generating electricity from a range of large scale technologies.

• UK Electricity Generation Costs Update

Enquiries

For any enquiries about energy and emissions projections, please email the DECC modelling team at: emissionsprojections@decc.gsi.gov.uk.